The prospects for the cell phone games market are looking fine. At least that’s what the majority of a group of telecommunication business experts and leaders assumes, predicting a redoubling of turnover till 2012 for the sector. However, more than a quarter of the experts asked don’t expect quite such a positive development. After countless prognoses for the mobile games market as well as considering the current developments on the cell phone market, my personal outlook on the world of cell phone games is anything but dim.

Last fall, the Association of the German Internet Industry, eco, surveyed 52 telecommunication business experts and leaders about the future developments of cell phone games and published first results of that survey. These show that about half of the respondents expect a redoubling of turnovers in Europe till 2012. One fifth of the industry experts even predict a tripling of what’s currently 2.4 billion euros. However, there are some opinions that reckon on either a constant turnover (21%) or declining turnovers within the next three years (6%).

The actual trends will probably move somewhere in between. Throughout the past five years, extremely diverging predictions have been presented for this market in particular, the majority of which are completely distorted by inaccurate differentiations and fuzzy definitions. By now though, mobile gaming has got established and the predictions should become more credible. I don’t think we’re even close the limit here yet.

Just a few weeks ago, Apple impressed with enormous turnover and download figures for their App Stores, spanning not even six months. A considerable fifty percent of the downloads were games, which had gained most among all applications used. That doesn’t really come as a surprise, because whoever has once played on the iPhone, quickly finds that the gaming experience is significantly better than on a conventional cell phone. Yet, after all, that’s what most people own. A fact that shows clearly in the results for the best selling cell phone games of 2008, most recently released by Nielsen. Naturally, this raises doubts as to whether the industry really is in for great growth:

In my opinion, the cell phone games market will continue to gain momentum and the signs are more promising than ever. Even when the cell phone market in Europe will be saturated, smartphones in the likes of the iPhone will rake in additional market shares, as they offer new and more diverse possibilities for applications, including games. Before this quarter is over, the HTC G1 phone with its Android operating system will be available in several European countries. Furthermore, new Android models by other manufacturers have been announced for early 2009. So this is going to be a tremendously interesting year with exciting developments — including the mobile games market.

Nevertheless, it is very doubtful indeed that this will render Tetris and Pac-Man games a thing of the past any time soon. Both titles are virtually unmatchable in their popularity, and they keep what they’re promising: simple game mechanics that are quick and easy to learn — thus ideal for the masses. In 2012 as today.