Germany is limping behind. Smoking ban, speed limit, still PISA – and also mobile surfing. “2008 will be the year of mobile web!” Russel Buckley, Managing Director Europe of AdMob Inc., announced on December 3 at the “Mobile Monday” summit in Frankfurt. “But this prediction cannot apply for Germany.”

Bang – the imaginary door clicks shut, imaginary forecasters – usually enthusiastic – gulp and keep silent, imaginary advertisers stare at the white wall. As dramatically as that sounds this prediction and is reinforced by the latest numbers of AdMob about the countries, “in which the use [of mobile web] apparently has become a part of everyday life”. The top ten list reads greatly extraordinary: Starting with the USA on rank 1, to Romania on rank 5, to Bangladesh on the sixth place, Canada on the seventh and on rank 10 Serbia and Montenegro. No sign of the Federal Republic.

The reason for the German’s reluctance to the mobile web Buckley sees in the far too high data rates of the German mobile service providers which inhibit a real growth. To make Germany forge ahead, rates have to plummet. In fact still further than hitherto, so that also Joe can afford.

In this year’s November the PC Welt criticized that half of the companies of the telecommunications branch regard the mobile web as the locomotive, but the interest confines only to business clients who generate nearly 80 per cent of the revenue. Private customers are said to be still skeptical, but one out of three is quite interested.

Maybe it’s worthwhile to take the years following 2008 into consideration, too. In my opinion mobile owners became skeptical because of their mobile service providers. How many times it happened that somebody tapped the pre-installed WAP key and had to fork up 50 Cents for this unintended click?

Moreover, the costs can still hardly be surveyed by the customer – who’s able to imagine how long or much they can surf with one megabyte? At the average discounter this megabyte costs 24 Cents. Depending on the accessed website this can be cheap, but be relatively expensive as well. There are also providers rating internet connections like calls with a minute cost. For example O₂ is offering a tariff easy manageable from a customer’s view – 3 cents per minute from the so-called „Homezone“, 9 Cents Germany-wide.
But: That still exceeds the costs of „usual internet“ by far. Some providers are offering flat rates, but these are only worthwhile for heavy users - though exactly low-priced fixed payment rates would be the best step to induce Germany and their inhabitants to mobile web.

Until all German mobile service providers will eliminate all doubts of their customers by creating real transparency (and not by collecting decreasing revenues from this way), the year 2008 will have passed by. But not later than 2009 the wall won’t be as half as black as Mr Buckley has painted it for the next year. And it looks like he was not able to decide between lightgrey and black: One and a half months ago his words sounded slightly more optimistic: „In Germany we’re still starting out on progress, but decreasing data tariffs as well as new devices and applications will bestow us a boom with the mobile web!“

PS. To all Germany-pessimists: On the Admob’s Top Ten list are, besides the Anglophone ones, no other industrial nations represented.